India’s diesel exports to Europe soared to an 11-month high in August, as the continent rushed to build stockpiles ahead of the European Union’s (EU) upcoming ban on petroleum products refined from Russian crude. The embargo, scheduled to take effect from January 21, 2026, is expected to reshape global fuel trade flows.
Europe Turns to India Amid Supply Concerns
Preliminary vessel-tracking data from Kpler shows India’s diesel shipments to Europe touched nearly 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August — up 63% from July and more than double compared to August 2023. All of these shipments were supplied by Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s largest private refiner and exporter.
Overall, India’s petroleum product exports to Europe climbed 41% month-on-month in August to nearly 399,000 bpd. Analysts expect exports to remain strong as European refiners, traders, and governments look to secure supplies well before the sanctions deadline.
Why Europe Is Stockpiling Now
One factor behind the surge is Shell’s decision to advance maintenance at its Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, originally planned for 2026. Analysts see this as part of Europe’s strategy to avoid disruptions once the sanctions take effect.
“This shift likely reflects anticipation of the January 2026 EU sanctions on products refined from Russian crude,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler. He noted that with West Asian refineries also heading into a heavy maintenance season later this year, Europe may rely more heavily on Indian diesel and jet fuel in the months ahead.
Experts say the trend mirrors the stockpiling seen before the EU’s February 2023 ban on direct imports of Russian petroleum products, when European countries ramped up purchases in advance.
Geopolitical Tensions Over Indian Fuel Exports
India’s growing role as a major supplier comes amid sharp criticism from the US and its allies, who accuse New Delhi of “profiteering” by refining discounted Russian crude and selling the products to Europe. India has rejected the charge, arguing that its oil trade is completely legal.
“If any country has a problem, they can simply stop importing from us,” Indian officials have said in response to the allegations.
Will the 2026 Ban Hurt India?
The EU’s upcoming ban will block imports of fuels derived from Russian crude when processed in third countries — with exceptions only for Canada, Norway, Switzerland, the UK, and the US. Given Russia’s rising share in India’s crude basket, the measure could potentially hit Indian refiners.
However, enforcement challenges remain. Most Indian refiners process a mix of crudes, with 60–70% sourced outside Russia. Reliance, for instance, operates two separate refining systems, giving it flexibility in compliance. “It is still too early to draw firm conclusions,” Ritolia noted.
Industry Says Impact Will Be Temporary
Industry insiders believe even if Europe halts purchases from India, the disruption will be short-lived. Fuel flows would simply be rerouted, they argue.
“If Europe stops buying from India, it will still need to buy from somewhere else,” an oil industry official said. “Global supply is limited, so the ban would only change trade flows. For example, if Europe imports more from West Asia, India can redirect its cargoes to markets that West Asian refiners were previously serving.”
India’s Pivotal Role as Swing Supplier
With Europe’s stockpiling accelerating and Middle Eastern refineries bracing for maintenance, experts expect India to remain a key swing supplier of middle distillates diesel, jet fuel, and kerosene — to the continent in the run-up to the sanctions deadline.
For now, India’s refiners especially Reliance appear set to benefit from Europe’s scramble for diesel. But when January 2026 arrives, global fuel trade routes could undergo another dramatic shift.
